The U.S. just confirmed North Korean troops are in Russia. Here’s what that means for the war in Ukraine.
Earlier today, U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin confirmed what Ukraine and South Korea have been warning about for weeks: North Korea has sent soldiers to Russia to support the war in Ukraine. According to both Kyiv and Seoul, North Korean troops are training in Russia’s Far East and will soon be deployed to the battlefield. Pyongyang deciding to send thousands of troops to join the Kremlin’s war would be unprecedented — and the soldiers in question appear to be highly capable special forces. The independent outlet iStories spoke to a North Korea expert to learn more about these troops, the problems they might face on the front lines, and whether any country has a chance to intervene and stop their deployment. Meduza shares the outlet’s key findings.
Last week, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky announced that North Korea had effectively entered the war on Russia’s side, stating that Pyongyang is preparing to send thousands of troops to support Moscow’s invasion. “This is essentially official confirmation that a second country is being drawn into the war to fight alongside Russia against Ukraine,” he said.
Initially, claims that North Korea was preparing to send actual soldiers to support Russia came from just two countries: Ukraine and South Korea. A week ago, Ukraine’s military intelligence chief Kyrylo Budanov said that around 11,000 North Korean soldiers were training in Russia’s Far East and should be combat ready by November 1. On October 22, Zelensky gave an even higher number, saying Ukraine was aware of plans to send two North Korean brigades of 6,000 soldiers each to fight alongside Moscow.
Meanwhile, South Korea’s National Intelligence Service reported that between October 8 and 13, North Korea had sent approximately 1,500 special forces soldiers to Russia, where they’re training in several cities across the Far East. Reportedly, they’ve been issued Russian uniforms and fake identification cards marking them as residents of eastern Russia. According to the National Intelligence Service, Pyongyang is preparing to send a total of 12,000 soldiers, including elite units, to assist Russia’s military operations.
On October 23, after weeks of speculation, Western officials confirmed parts of these reports. U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin told journalists that Washington has intelligence indicating the presence of North Korean troops in Russia. While he declined to speculate on what exactly they were doing there, Austin stressed that it would be “very, very serious” if they were being trained for combat in Ukraine.
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Meduza found several videos circulating on Ukrainian Telegram channels that purportedly show North Korean soldiers training in Russia’s Far East. One video, geolocated near the Sergievsky training ground in Russia’s Primorsky Krai, shows dozens of people in military uniforms — allegedly North Korean troops undergoing training before deployment to Ukraine.
Another video, filmed at an undisclosed location, shows people who are speaking Korean receiving uniforms similar to those used by Russian forces, and a third video shows armed individuals at what is claimed to be the Sergievsky training ground, though the terrain doesn’t appear match the area surrounding the facility. The origin of these videos is unclear, as the Telegram channels didn’t disclose their sources.
Both Ukraine and South Korea have reported that North Korean specialists are already in the combat zone, assisting Russian forces with equipment such as the KN-23 short-range ballistic missile launchers provided by Pyongyang. However, the deployment of a significant number of regular troops would mark a notable escalation in North Korea’s involvement.
‘Combat-ready assault troops’
According to South Korean intelligence, the North Korean troops being sent to Russia belong to the 11th Corps of the Korean People’s Army, a highly capable unit known for its combat readiness, explains Fyodor Tertitskiy, a lecturer at Korea University and an expert on North Korean politics. “This is a special forces unit. When I first heard the news, I thought the North Koreans might dump some poor-quality infantry units on the Russians, the kind that help out on farms. But based on the information we have, it seems they’ve sent combat-ready assault troops.”
In 2021, U.S. intelligence assessed North Korea’s special forces as well-trained and motivated, reported The Guardian. However, they lack the modern communication systems and advanced weaponry of elite units in other countries. Ahmed Hassan, the CEO of Grey Dynamics, a British private intelligence firm, noted that North Korean special forces fall somewhere between regular soldiers and U.S. or British special operations forces in terms of capability.
However, this doesn’t mean that North Korean troops won’t face serious challenges trying to operate in Ukraine. First, there’s the language barrier. Tertitskiy points out that North Korea has few soldiers who speak Russian, and it’s unlikely that many Russian troops are fluent in Korean. This could severely hinder coordination between the two forces.
Second, North Korea still employs political officers, who oversee commanders and must approve nearly every order. “When you’re told to fire, you don’t just say, ‘Yes, comrade company commander.’ You ask, ‘Comrade political officer, do you confirm comrade commander’s order?’ Their system is designed more to prevent a coup (God forbid) than to ensure combat effectiveness,” Tertitskiy explained. This delay in decision-making could leave North Korean troops vulnerable to enemy fire while waiting for orders to be confirmed.
Fyodor Tertitskiy talks to Meduza
Furthermore, a 12,000-strong force is remarkably small for a this war, notes military analyst Ian Matveev. Much will depend on whether North Korean leader Kim Jong Un limits his involvement to these initial units.
Kim, however, could easily afford to send more troops — at least in terms of sheer numbers. According to the International Institute for Strategic Studies, North Korea’s military had approximately 1.2 million personnel in 2018, making it the fourth-largest in the world at the time. Its special forces alone are estimated at around 200,000 soldiers. Still, it’s hard to predict how many troops Kim is actually willing to deploy. Even Tertitskiy, who in June thought it unlikely that North Korea’s strategic partnership with Russia would result in troops being sent to Ukraine, now concedes: “Surprises happen.”
Controlling Kim
If China, South Korea, or the United States hope to stop Kim Jong Un from sending troops to Russia, their options are limited and vary in potential effectiveness. China could pressure Moscow, but it has little direct leverage over North Korea, explains Fyodor Tertitskiy. “If China had that kind of influence, North Korea wouldn’t have nuclear weapons,” he noted. “Chinese troops would be stationed in North Korea, and they’d be celebrating Chinese-Korean Friendship Month 12 months a year.”
Beijing has far more leverage over Russia, especially given Moscow’s reliance on China to circumvent sanctions and sell natural resources. “Putin can’t afford to anger Xi Jinping, but Kim can. Kim knows that even if everything is cut off, he can just take whatever’s left from his people. Putin doesn’t have anywhere near the same control over society as Kim,” Tertitskiy explained.
South Korea’s options are even more limited. Seoul has its own concerns, particularly the risk that North Korea might receive advanced Russian weaponry in exchange for troops, potentially altering the military balance on the Korean Peninsula. In response, South Korea could lift its restrictions on sending lethal aid to Ukraine — so far, it’s only provided non-lethal military support. The possibility of lifting these restrictions was raised back in June, when Russia and North Korea signed a strategic partnership, but South Korea didn’t change its stance.
Now, South Korean officials are again weighing the possibility of expanding military aid to Ukraine, focusing on defensive weapons, reported Yonhap News Agency, citing a government source. If South Korea sends lethal aid, it would likely do so through third countries. There’s also talk of sending military personnel to Ukraine to study North Korean special forces tactics and assist in interrogating captured North Korean soldiers.
The United States, meanwhile, has exhausted most of its economic sanctions against North Korea with little effect on Pyongyang’s behavior. “Sanctions on North Korea will only lead to the people going hungry,” says Tertitskiy. “Have they stopped the nuclear program? No.” According to him, the only remaining threat that might scare Kim Jong Un — targeting his life — is too risky to pursue.
For the U.S. and Ukraine’s other Western allies, the primary way to pressure Russia is by increasing military aid to Ukraine. For months, President Zelensky has been requesting permission to use long-range Western weapons to strike deeper into Russian territory, but U.S. officials have yet to agree. During a recent visit to Kyiv, Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin did not directly address the issue, only saying that the U.S. would continue to provide Ukraine with what it needs “to fight for its survival and security.”