Was Azerbaijan Airlines Embraer jet shot down? Marks on the plane’s exterior suggest it was hit by military air defenses. Meduza considers the evidence.

On December 25, 2024, a few hours after an Azerbaijan Airlines Embraer passenger jet crashed in Aktau, Kazakhstan, an anonymous Russian blogger, who is connected to Russia’s Air Forces and goes by the username Fighterbomber, posted important video evidence of the crash site on his Telegram channel.

The footage shows marks consistent with damage from anti-aircraft missiles on the airliner’s tail. Fighterbomber commented on the video:

Other pro-war social media channels supported the theory that the marks on the airplane were the result of a missile strike. New videos appeared, showing clear footage of the marks in question, as well as damage to the plane’s left wing.

It’s certainly hard to interpret the video from the crash site any other way.

It is impossible to determine what type of ammunition may have struck the plane solely based on the shape of the holes it left. That requires finding remnants of whatever hit the plane.

It is also difficult to say with certainty who owned the weapons that struck the Embraer jet. What we do know for sure is that on the morning of December 25, Russian air defenses repelled an attack by Ukrainian drones in the Embraer’s landing zone.

The plane was en route from Baku, in Azerbaijan to Grozny, in Russia’s Chechnya. According to Russian authorities, the plane was redirected during its descent to an alternate airfield in Makhachkala, reportedly due to heavy fog in the Chechen capital. However, the real reason for the change could have been an incoming Ukrainian drone attack.

Chechen opposition Telegram channel Niyso posted information about a drone raid on Grozny in the morning of December 25, and publication Baza then confirmed the information. According to Baza sources, Grozny authorities closed the city’s airport to incoming air traffic. Khamzat Kadyrov, secretary of Chechnya’s Security Council and nephew of Chechnya head Ramzan Kadyrov, also later confirmed the information, posting video footage of one of the drones.

Later, for unknown reasons, the Embraer refused to land in Makhachkala, heading instead for Aktau, in Kazakhstan. Dagestan, in Russia’s North Caucasus region, has experienced recent attacks by Ukrainian drones, so neighboring Chechnya’s air defenses would have been on alert. However, air defense command in Dagestan clearly did not receive advance warning about the Embraer’s possible landing in Makhachkala.

Fragments of what was reportedly a conversation between the Embraer pilots and the Makhachkala dispatcher were posted on the VChK-OGPU Telegram channel, which blocks security services. The recordings reportedly reveal that the plane sustained damage and lost control on its descent into Grozny. Pilots originally thought the aircraft had been hit by birds. They requested permission to land in Mineralnye Vody, in Southern Russia, then very quickly changed course to Makhachkala. It’s likely that they failed to reach Dagestan at all due to damage to the plane’s controls.

Wherever the damage to the Embraer occurred, it seems increasingly plausible that it was due to an error by Russia’s air defense forces. It’s not the first time in recent history that an accidental missile strike has brought down a passenger aircraft. Azerbaijan Airlines suspended all flights to Grozny and Makhachkala until the investigation into the cause of the crash has concluded, supporting the theory that it was an accidental hit by Russia’s military. Perhaps this time, the fact that the investigation will be carried out by specialists from Kazakhstan (where the plane went down), Brazil (where Embraer jets are manufactured), and probably Azerbaijan — and not Russia — will help establish the truth.

According to the latest data, the crash killed 38 people, including the pilots, who could otherwise have been important sources of information about what exploded near the plane.