The European Union is opening accession talks with Kyiv How far away is Ukraine from actually joining the E.U.?

On December 14, European leaders decided to begin accession talks with Ukraine and Moldova. Additionally, the European Council granted E.U. candidate status to Georgia. With this, E.U. leaders upheld the Council of the European Union’s conclusion on enlargement and followed all of the recommendations made earlier by the European Commission.

Hungary came close to blocking this decision, despite Ukraine having met Budapest’s demands by amending its education law, which had previously limited the use of minority languages in educational settings.

Ultimately, however, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz convinced Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán to leave the meeting before the vote, and the European Council (formally) unanimously adopted the decision to start accession talks with Ukraine.

Thus, in just a year and a half, Ukraine went from receiving E.U. candidate status to E.U. leaders agreeing to start negotiations on accession. Western media called this a “historic victory” and a “shock win” for Kyiv.

It’s difficult to predict. The negotiations could proceed relatively quickly — but they could also be prolonged.

For example, the decision to start similar negotiations with Montenegro was made in December 2010, but formal negotiations only began a year and a half later, in July 2012. After another year and a half, in December 2013, the parties finally moved on to discussing the first two major negotiation points: the judicial system and citizens’ fundamental rights. Today, Montenegro’s negotiations with the E.U. are still ongoing.

On the other hand, Latvia formally began negotiations to join the E.U. in March 2000 and successfully completed them in December 2002.

In the most general terms, the parties verify, step by step, that the national legislation and policy of the candidate country are aligned with the standards and laws of the E.U.

Kyiv and Brussels will have to discuss 35 topics. Among them are the following:

No, the European Union has the right to halt the negotiation process or to restart it in specific areas.

Ukrainian Deputy Prime Minister for European Integration Olha Stefanishyna predicted that the discussions would last a couple of years, saying, “It’s realistic for Ukraine to complete its work in two years, considering how we’re progressing.”

According to perhaps the most plausible expert assessment (based on the experience of other countries), Ukraine will need at least 10 years for full-scale integration into the E.U. In May 2022, the French Foreign Affairs Ministry stated that the process would “take 15 or 20 years.” (The same forecast holds for Moldova.)

Ukraine is still going through a long path of reforms, some of which are quite painful as they challenge the established system of political, economic, and social order in the country.

It’s important to note that Europe, for the second time since the beginning of the full-scale war, is sending a signal of support to the Ukrainian authorities for their efforts toward E.U. integration. (The first was granting Ukraine candidate status in 2022.) So, Ukraine’s path to the E.U. might not be similar to that of any other candidate country.

In the key findings of its report on Ukraine, the European Commission wrote that despite the war with Russia, “Ukraine has continued to progress on democratic and rule of law reforms,” and, although elections have not been held in the country recently, “the legal framework remains conducive to the organization of democratic elections.” The European Commission also positively assessed Kyiv’s anti-corruption efforts.

Again, so far only formally. It’s an important bureaucratic step for Brussels, but Georgia’s path to the E.U. looks even longer than Ukraine’s. (It’s not for nothing that, even though it was expected that Georgia’s candidate status would be announced last year along with Ukraine’s, it didn’t happen then.)

North Macedonia was declared a candidate in 2005, Montenegro in 2008, and Serbia and Albania in 2009. None of these countries are in the E.U. yet.

In its report on Georgia, the European Commission praised the country for its commitment to democratic reforms and its fight against organized crime and corruption. However, it also noted shortcomings, including strong political tension and public polarization, as well as a lack of constructive dialogue between political parties and their inability to reach a consensus even on key national interests.

The Council of the European Union called on Georgia to more actively combat internal and foreign disinformation.