Enter, Pyongyang Russian forces close in on Pokrovsk, threatening all of Donbas, as North Korean troops join the fight in the Kursk Region

Like our earlier reports on the combat situation in Ukraine, this article takes stock of the recent developments on the battlefield based on open-source information. Meduza has condemned Russia’s invasion of Ukraine from the very start, and our detailed military analyses are part of our commitment to objective reporting on a war we firmly oppose.

Our map is based exclusively on open-source photos and videos, most of them posted by eyewitnesses on social media. We collect available evidence and determine its geolocation markers, adding only the photos and videos that clear this process. Meduza doesn’t try to track the conflict in real time; the data reflected on the map are typically at least 48 hours old.

Key updates as of December 19, 2024

The Ukrainian Armed Forces (AFU) are trying to counterattack after a Russian breakthrough south of Pokrovsk in central Donbas, but they remain outgunned. Despite reinforcements being sent in, Ukrainian troops have failed to retake the villages of Shevchenko and Novotroitske, allowing Russian forces to push further west. This raises the risk of Pokrovsk being encircled from that direction, as Russian troops have already reached its eastern and southern outskirts.

The situation is no better on the southern flank. While some counterattacks have seen success, Ukrainian forces have been unable to unblock roads leading north to the district center of Velyka Novosilka. Meanwhile, they’re losing control of the southern approaches to Kurakhove and have lost the fight for the city center.

Meduza has condemned Russia’s invasion of Ukraine from the very start, and we are committed to reporting objectively on a war we firmly oppose. Join Meduza in its mission to challenge the Kremlin’s censorship with the truth. Donate today. 

Ukraine

Pokrovsk

Russian forces reached the eastern outskirts of Pokrovsk — the center of an urban area with a pre-war population of 400,000 — late this summer after breaking through Ukrainian lines west of Avdiivka. However, they didn’t storm the city at the time, choosing instead to redirect their offensive south toward Kurakhove. Most Ukrainian troops retreated in that direction, toward the Selydove area and further south to the Kurakhove Reservoir, leaving a gap in their defenses between Pokrovsk and Kurakhove.

In December, Russian forces exploited this weak point, pushing 10 kilometers (over six miles) deep into Ukrainian defenses and reaching the road linking Pokrovsk, Kostyantynopil, and Velyka Novosilka. When Russian troops reached this critical route, the Ukrainian army launched counterattacks near Novotroitske and Shevchenko. However, Novotroitske was quickly lost, and the battle for Shevchenko — just three kilometers (about two miles) from Pokrovsk’s southern outskirts — is ongoing.

Russian sappers moved swiftly to mine the approaches to the recently captured village of Novotroitske, preventing Ukrainian armored vehicles from advancing toward Russian positions in residential areas. Meanwhile, Russian troops are pressing toward Pokrovsk and the area east of Shevchenko, where they’ve reached the Solena River. This advance may render Ukrainian efforts to halt the Russian army’s advance in Shevchenko itself futile.

At the same time, an immediate assault on Pokrovsk appears unlikely. Instead, Russian units are advancing westward through Novotroitske, with the apparent aim of encircling Pokrovsk from the west. Recent Russian successes in Selydove, Kurakhove, and Velyka Novosilka have relied on similar “partial encirclement” tactics.

Kurakhove

The Russian army is on the verge of capturing Kurakhove, a key city in southern Donbas. Russian assault groups advancing from the east have reached the city center and taken control of the administration building. The only area still under Ukrainian control is a large industrial zone in the city’s west.

Even this remaining position, however, is at risk of encirclement. To the north of Kurakhove, Russian forces have secured the entire shoreline of the Kurakhove Reservoir and advanced to the dam on the Vovcha River. They are now just two kilometers (a bit over one mile) from the Donetsk–Zaporizhzhia highway — the only road linking the city’s western side to unoccupied Ukrainian territory.

Meanwhile, another Russian group is advancing on Kurakhove from the south, following months of fighting along the Sukhi Yaly River. Toward the end of this battle, Ukrainian forces were surrounded in villages near the river, though most of them likely managed to escape through their last fortified position in Uspenivka. Shortly afterward, Russian forces captured Uspenivka.

Russian troops have now reached the Sukhi Yaly River to the west of Uspenivka. Across the river lies a ridge of hills with Ukrainian defensive positions, but it remains unclear whether Ukrainian forces have sufficient troops to hold this final line before Kurakhove. In the coming weeks — or even days — Russian units advancing from the south and north could converge at the Donetsk–Zaporizhzhia highway, west of Kurakhove.

Velyka Novosilka

At the end of November, Russian forces advanced to the eastern and northern outskirts of Velyka Novosilka. From the north, they captured the villages of Rozdolne and Novyi Komar, located along the only viable supply road to Velyka Novosilka. Other routes have either been cut off by Russian troops or lie on the western bank of the Mokri Yaly River, where bridges were destroyed during the first year of the full-scale war.

The Ukrainian army quickly launched counterattacks in Rozdolne and Novyi Komar. While they briefly forced Russian troops out of Novyi Komar, the Russians regrouped and retook the village. Russian aircraft then bombed the Mokri Yaly River crossing north of Novyi Komar, which Ukrainian forces had been using to support their counterattacks.

Meanwhile, Russian troops are advancing toward Velyka Novosilka from the west and south. To the south, Ukrainian forces defending Makarivka in the Mokri Yaly River valley have been encircled.

Toretsk

Russian forces are nearing the capture of Toretsk, north of Horlivka. The assault on the city and nearby settlements has been ongoing since July. Initially, counterattacks by Ukrainian reserves were enough to halt Russian troops in the city center, but by December, Ukrainian resources were nearly depleted.

The Russian army has taken control of the high-rise buildings in central Toretsk, the nearby mines and their spoil tips, and the Zabalka neighborhood in the city’s southwest — an area that saw heavy fighting throughout the fall. Ukrainian forces continue to hold low-rise residential areas in northern Toretsk and a few spoil tips beyond them.

The fall of Toretsk could pave the way for a Russian advance on Kostiantynivka. Russian units currently attacking Chasiv Yar, west of Bakhmut, may join such an offensive in the future.

Russia

Kursk Region

Numerous open-source videos suggest that long-awaited “allies” from North Korea’s military have joined Russia’s offensive. Units employing tactics distinct from those of the Russian army — attacking with several dozen soldiers at once in a fairly dense combat formation — have been observed in multiple locations north, east, and south of Sudzha.

Reports suggest that North Korean troops played a pivotal role in the assault on the village of Plekhovo, south of Sudzha, which Russian forces had struggled to recapture for weeks. The village has now been retaken, and Russian forces (or their “allies”) have reached the Psel River west of Plekhovo. Now, they’re threatening to cut off the Sumy–Sudzha road, the Ukrainian troops’ supply line.

To the north, other forces that don’t appear to be Russian troops have advanced toward the village of Malaya Loknya, an area where Russian efforts have previously faltered. Meanwhile, another unit has reportedly moved toward the settlement of Nechayev, north of Sudzha.

The situation for the AFU has worsened following Russian successes near Plekhovo and Malaya Loknya. If Russian forces succeed in driving Ukrainian troops out of Malaya Loknya or the village of Sverdlikovo, west of Sudzha, or if they cross the Psel River between Plekhovo and Guyevo, the Ukrainian command may be forced to consider withdrawing from the Kursk region.

Meduza is careful in working with data, but mistakes are still possible, and perhaps even inevitable. If you spot one, please let us know by sending an email to reports@meduza.io. Thank you!