Falling dominoes As Ukraine’s foothold in Kursk shrinks, the Russian army is capturing towns in Donbas once far out of reach

Like our earlier reports on the combat situation in Ukraine, this article takes stock of the recent developments on the battlefield based on open-source information. Meduza has condemned Russia’s invasion of Ukraine from the very start, and our detailed military analyses are part of our commitment to objective reporting on a war we firmly oppose.

Our map is based exclusively on open-source photos and videos, most of them posted by eyewitnesses on social media. We collect available evidence and determine its geolocation markers, adding only the photos and videos that clear this process. Meduza doesn’t try to track the conflict in real time; the data reflected on the map are typically at least 48 hours old.

Key updates as of November 16, 2024

The Ukrainian Armed Forces (AFU) are facing a deepening crisis. Despite sustaining heavy losses, Russian troops have pushed forward with their offensive in southern Donbas, the Kursk region, along the Kupyansk front, and toward the cities of Siversk and Chasiv Yar. Even the Zaporizhzhia region, which had seen months of relative calm, has come under renewed assault. The battle for Kurakhove, a crucial logistics hub in southern Donbas, has already begun, with Russian forces entering the city from the east and closing in on the city center. Another Russian unit has pushed into the village of Dalnje on Kurakhove’s southeastern outskirts, putting Ukrainian troops south of the city at risk of encirclement. Meanwhile, Russian forces have also reached the eastern part of Kupyansk and the center of Chasiv Yar.

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Ukraine

Kupyansk

At the end of October, after months of grueling combat, Russian forces reached the Oskil River south of Kupyansk, achieving the primary goal of an offensive that began in 2023.

Following this advance, Russian President Vladimir Putin claimed that two Ukrainian military groups, numbering 5,000 and 10,000 troops respectively, were trapped along the river. In reality, however, after capturing the villages of Kruhlyakivka and Kolisnykivka on the riverbanks, Russia’s offensive stalled. Russian units attempted to expand their foothold south toward Borova and north toward Kupyansk but found themselves squeezed from both sides by relentless Ukrainian drone strikes.

The next target is likely the city of Lyman, south of Kupyansk. Taking Lyman could open a path to the outskirts of the Kramatorsk–Sloviansk urban area. Still, those cities lie beyond the Siverskyi Donets River, which Russian forces failed to cross at this point in 2022.

To advance south along the Oskil, Russian forces would need to capture Kupyansk, as the supply route essential for troops stationed at the river runs directly through this city from Svatove. The alternative would be a grueling offensive from the east, across terrain with sparse roads, rivers, swamps, and forests. For the past two years, Russian troops have tried both approaches without success.

Recently, however, the situation has shifted. The Ukrainian Armed Forces are grappling with a persistent shortage of troops, and many of their most battle-ready units have been redeployed from Kupyansk to Russia’s Kursk region. This has enabled Russian forces to break through Ukraine’s defenses.

Capturing Kupyansk would require a strike from the north, which Russian forces have already launched. On November 13, two columns of armored vehicles advanced into the eastern part of the city, deploying troops into residential and industrial areas. Ukrainian forces have struck back. Open-source videos show several damaged Russian armored vehicles and a number of Russian soldiers being captured in eastern Kupyansk.

It remains unclear whether Russian troops will be able to hold their ground in Kupyansk. If they do, Ukrainian troops may be forced to abandon a significant number of their positions on the east bank of the Oskil. In a worst-case scenario, this could clear the way for Russian forces to advance on Lyman.

Kurakhove

Russian forces have begun their assault on Kurakhove, a vital logistics hub in southern Donbas. A Russian unit, using tactics similar to those employed in Kupyansk, managed to break through into Kurakhove’s residential areas from the most heavily fortified direction — the east — advancing from the recently captured village of Maksymilyanivka. From there, Russian troops pushed further, reaching the village of Dalnje on Kurakhove’s southern outskirts, where a Ukrainian tank counterattack temporarily stalled their progress.

However, the main Russian offensive is unfolding along the northern and southern flanks of Ukraine’s defenses. To the north, Russian troops have seized Selydove, Hirnyk, and Kurakhivka and are now advancing toward the western edge of the Kurakhove Reservoir along two routes — one hugging the shoreline from the direction of Kurakhivka and Hirnyk, the other pushing south from Selydove. Russian forces have reached the village of Sontsivka, just five kilometers (about three miles) from the reservoir’s western end.

At the same time, a separate Russian group is advancing from the south, approaching Kurakhove in three columns from the direction of Vuhledar. In October, this group captured several villages where Ukrainian troops had retreated after losing Vuhledar, including Shakhtarske, Novoukrainka, and Bohoyavlenka.

From there, Russian forces moved toward the village of Trudove, beyond which is Uspenivka, which has a critical road junction. Kurakhove lies about 10 kilometers (about six miles) from this point. The situation for Ukrainian forces in Uspenivka has grown increasingly precarious, with Russian troops now threatening their rear from Dalnje. As a result, all Ukrainian units to the east of Uspenivka are at serious risk of encirclement. Significant Ukrainian forces are attempting to hold off Russian advances in villages along the banks of the Sukhi Yaly River, though it seems likely that these remaining settlements will soon have to be abandoned. Despite these gains, the southern Russian grouping will clearly take longer to reach Kurakhove than their northern counterparts, as they still need to cross the Sukhi Yaly River and the heights beyond.

Separating the northern and southern Russian forces is a reservoir, with a dam on the Vovcha River at its western end. On November 11, the dam, still under Ukrainian control, was destroyed — likely by Ukrainian sappers. The Ukrainian command appears most concerned about a Russian breakthrough from the north and may be preparing to withdraw from positions on the reservoir’s northern shore. To the south of the river lie Kurakhove and the crucial Donetsk–Zaporizhzhia road, which Ukrainian forces are determined to defend at all costs.

Russia

Kursk region

The Ukrainian army’s foothold in Russia’s Kursk region continues to shrink. Ukrainian troops have withdrawn from the Glushkovsky district, where in October they had attempted to counter Russian attacks both west and east of Sudzha. Since then, Russian forces have advanced to the national border in that area.

Despite repeated efforts, Russian troops have failed to dislodge Ukrainian forces from the Olgovskaya Grove, a forested area between the district center of Korenevo and Sudzha. President Vladimir Putin had claimed that 2,000 Ukrainian soldiers were surrounded there, but it later emerged that Ukrainian units are still being supplied via roads from Malaya Loknya. Russian forces are now launching a direct assault on the forest.

Even so, Russian troops are gradually pushing back Ukrainian defenses west of Sudzha. Despite facing tank counterattacks from Ukrainian forces, they’re trying to establish a foothold in Novoivanovka and are attacking Malaya Loknya, a key Ukrainian defensive position — albeit with losses and limited success.

Russian units have also retaken part of the village of Darino. Losing this village could prove costly for the Ukrainian Armed Forces, as it sits on the eastern bank of the Snagost River — the side closest to Sudzha — where they’ve been trying to hold their defensive line.

Russian forces are also attacking the Ukrainian foothold in the Kursk region from the east. In early November, they attempted to send a column of armored vehicles into the village of Plekhovo, south of Sudzha, but ended up losing equipment. However, they later surprised Ukrainian troops by bypassing the village from the north, crossing the Psel River in boats, and engaging them in combat on Plekhovo's northern outskirts.

Overall, however, the Russian offensive in the Kursk region has slowed. As the front line narrows, Ukrainian resistance has stiffened.

Meduza is careful in working with data, but mistakes are still possible, and perhaps even inevitable. If you spot one, please let us know by sending an email to reports@meduza.io. Thank you!