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The Donald returns What Trump’s 2024 presidential election victory means for Russia and the war in Ukraine

Source: Verstka

Donald Trump is projected to win the 60th U.S. presidential election. The issue of Russia has loomed large in the political career of the former president, who was impeached in 2019 over his attempts to pressure Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to investigate the son of Trump’s then-opponent Joe Biden. As recently as last month, Trump claimed to have a “very good relationship” with Vladimir Putin, and in May, he asserted that he would end the war in Ukraine “within 24 hours.” In the lead-up to the election, journalists from the independent outlet Verstka compiled an overview of what Trump and his associates have said over the last year about his plans regarding Russia and Ukraine should he return to office. Meduza has adapted the article into English.

What has Trump said about the war in Ukraine?

In April 2024, The Washington Post reported that Donald Trump said in a private conversation that he could end the war “by pressuring Ukraine to give up some territory.” Citing sources who had spoken to Trump or his advisors, the Post said that Trump’s plan would entail “pushing Ukraine to cede Crimea and the Donbas border region to Russia.”

Two months after claiming he would end the war “within 24 hours,” Trump said in an interview with Fox News that he would do this by demanding Zelensky “make a deal” with Russia, and by threatening to give more military aid to Ukraine if Russia refused: 

In October, The Financial Times quoted a long-term Trump advisor as saying that the then-candidate’s plan to end the war in Ukraine could be modeled on the 2014 Minsk agreements, which sought to end the conflict in Donbas. Unlike those agreements, the source said, this deal would include enforcement mechanisms and consequences for violations.

U.S. Representative Michael Waltz told the FT that Trump could pressure Russia into ending the invasion by threatening to lower global oil prices and crash its economy. “You flood the world with cheaper, cleaner American oil and gas,” Waltz said.

What has Trump said about Putin?

Trump has long known Putin and has faced accusations of having a “special relationship” with the Russian president. According to Bob Woodward’s book War, Trump even stayed in touch with Putin after leaving office, sending COVID-19 tests to him at the height of the pandemic.

Trump has described his relationship with Putin as “good.” He has also claimed that he warned the Russian leader that he’d strike Russia if there was any threat to Ukraine. “I said, Vladimir, if you go after Ukraine, I am going to hit you so hard, you’re not even going to believe it. I’m going to hit you right in the middle of fricking Moscow.’ I said, ‘We’re friends. I don’t want to do it, but I have no choice,’” Trump asserted. He didn’t clarify when or under what circumstances this conversation reportedly took place.

What does Trump’s victory mean for Russia? 

According to Bloomberg Economics analysts, Trump’s victory in the election could lead to four possible scenarios for U.S. policy toward Ukraine. The most likely outcome, they believe, is a reduction in American financial and military aid to Kyiv. This, in turn, would force Ukraine to pressure Europe for more support. Despite decreased U.S. backing, Ukrainian forces would continue defending the country's borders, while Russia would ramp up its recruitment of contract soldiers.

In a less probable scenario, the U.S. could manage to force Ukraine and Russia to end hostilities. Most likely, this would involve Kyiv relinquishing its claims to occupied territories and shelving its NATO aspirations, while Moscow would secure the lifting of some Western sanctions.

Experts consider it highly improbable that Trump would completely cut off aid to Ukraine. In that case, Kyiv would face a severe crisis, with devastating consequences that might force Ukrainian authorities to accept any terms Russia dictates to secure peace. Such a move could erode Trump’s support even among his loyal American base and trigger a new wave of Ukrainian refugees into Europe.

The prospect of Trump significantly increasing military and financial support to Ukraine is equally unlikely, Bloomberg experts say.

Political analyst Ilya Grashchenkov told Verstka he believes Trump will indeed push to end the war in Ukraine. However, he warned that tensions between Russia and the West could still lead to a new “Cold War.” “For Russia, Trump is certainly preferable [to Harris] because he wants to end the hot phase of the conflict and redirect [U.S. military interests] elsewhere,” Grashchenkov explained. “Americans are weary of constant nuclear threats, and Trump, being a populist, understands that.”

Grashchenkov expects Trump to pursue de-escalation in Ukraine quickly, though there could be significant resistance to his plans. By contrast, he believes a Harris presidency would have taken longer to reach the same goal but faced less pushback. Ultimately, he believes both paths would lead to the same outcome for Russia, albeit on different timelines.

Political scientist Mikhail Vinogradov told Verstka that Trump’s victory is likely to “destabilize the U.S. administration for several months” as power dynamics are sorted out. During this period, Russia could have a “window of opportunity” to advance its interests in Ukraine. “Beyond that, there’s still no real dialogue between the sides,” Vinogradov added, noting that it’s hard to envision any American administration accepting Russia’s maximalist demands.