Open-source data shows Russia’s equipment losses in Ukraine reached a two-year high in October
Amid an intensified offensive in Ukraine, Russia’s military is facing unprecedented equipment losses, according to data from the open-source research project Oryx, analyzed by Agentstvo. October saw the highest monthly losses of Russian armored vehicles, aircraft, helicopters, and other military assets since October 2022, when Russian forces withdrew from the Kharkiv region.
Update: Data from the open-source project WarSpotting paints a slightly different picture of Russia’s equipment losses. According to the database, the Russian military lost 511 units of equipment in October 2024. Since November 2022, the only month with higher losses was May 2024, when Russian troops lost 552 units.
Since October 1, Russia has lost 695 pieces of equipment, either destroyed, damaged, abandoned, or captured by Ukrainian forces, according to data from Oryx. These losses include 253 infantry fighting vehicles, 103 tanks, 41 armored personnel carriers, four aircraft (two Su-25 and two Su-34 fighters), and one Mi-28 helicopter. By comparison, Ukrainian forces lost 276 pieces of equipment in the same period, including 47 armored personnel carriers, 28 infantry fighting vehicles, 21 tanks, and one Su-24M aircraft.
Russia’s monthly equipment losses have climbed since summer, rising from 434 pieces in August to 695 in October. This increase aligns with an intensified push to capture Ukrainian territory, with Forbes noting that the Kremlin seems prepared to trade both personnel and equipment for land gains.
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A notable example is Russia’s ongoing assault on the village of Illinka, north of Vuhledar, where Ukrainian forces have endured two weeks of intense attacks from Russia’s 20th Guards Motor Rifle Division, wrote Forbes. While Russia is leveraging its numerical advantage in troops and equipment, the assault has cost it dozens of BMP-3 and BMP-2 infantry fighting vehicles and MT-LB armored personnel carriers.
This aggressive strategy has led to record single-day losses of Russian equipment in recent weeks. On one Saturday alone, Russia lost 206 pieces of equipment, according to OSINT analyst Andrew Perpetua, while Ukrainian forces lost 55 pieces the same day.
Russia’s monthly losses now rank second only to those in the fall of 2022, when retreating forces left behind large amounts of equipment in Ukraine’s Kharkiv region. In October 2022, Russia lost 1,032 pieces, and in September 2022, it lost 1,179 — the highest for any month in the war so far, according to Agentstvo.
In late October and early November, Russia’s advance picked up to its fastest pace of the year. From October 28 to November 3, Russian forces captured 172 square kilometers (66.4 square miles) of Ukrainian territory, building on the 196 square kilometers (75.7 square miles) taken the week prior, data from the Ukrainian OSINT project DeepState shows. However, experts cited by The New York Times believe that by next year, Russia could face a critical shortage of equipment and personnel as the strain of sustaining its offensive mounts.