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‘She wants to shake hands with the whole region’ How Sardana Avksentieva, once Russia’s most popular mayor, could pose problems for the country’s ruling party in Yakutia’s upcoming elections

Source: Meduza

In 2018, the eastern Siberian city of Yakutsk elected its first female mayor, Sardana Avksentieva, just five weeks after she entered the race. Her platform centered around anti-corruption and transparency, and in the months after taking office, she gained national prominence as she appeared to follow through with many of her campaign pledges. In early 2021, however, Avksentieva abruptly resigned, citing health concerns, though a source close to the Putin administration told Meduza at the time that the decision had come from above. Then, in September of that year, Avksentieva was elected to Russia’s State Duma, though she’s kept a relatively low profile since then. Now, however, election season is approaching, and in recent weeks, the former mayor has been traveling around Yakutia and cautiously criticizing the country’s leadership. According to Meduza’s sources, the Kremlin has taken notice.

In recent years, the eastern Siberian republic of Yakutia has been one of Russia’s most opposition-minded regions. Just consider these two examples:

In the fall of 2018, Sardana Avksentieva, a little-known former official, became the mayor of the region’s capital city, Yakutsk, when she beat the United Russia candidate. Avksentieva quickly gained a reputation as “the healthy man’s mayor” thanks to several populist initiatives that she sponsored (though in fact she began supporting the ruling party almost immediately after the election).

Today, Avksentieva is a member of the Russian State Duma, where she represents the New People party. The next State Duma election isn’t until 2026, but Yakutia will hold several important elections in September 2023: citizens will vote for members of the Il Tumen (regional assembly), governor, and municipal council deputies. Avksentieva is leading New People’s list of candidates in the republic.

In recent weeks, Sardana Avksentieva has been traveling around Yakutia and (carefully) criticizing the current authorities. On one trip, she met with relatives of mobilized soldiers; they complained to her about the conditions their loved ones are being made to serve in. Afterwards, she wrote on Telegram:

At the end of the meeting, Avksentieva filed complaints with the Russian Defense Ministry and Human Rights Commissioner Tatyana Moskalkova. Meanwhile, media outlets close to the Yakutia authorities implied that the complaints from the soldiers’ relatives may have been inspired by Avksentieva herself: “[It’s likely that] some people organized the initial letter from the mothers and wives at the beginning, taking advantage of people’s pain and suffering.”

A source close to the republic’s leadership confirmed to Meduza that Avksentieva’s efforts are indeed raising alarm bells among the local authorities, including Governor Aysen Nikolayev, who will run for reelection will leading United Russia’s lists in the Il Tumen and Yakutsk City Council elections.

“Nikolayev understands that the New People party and Sardana are eating away at the United Russia electorate, that they’re bringing up problematic issues [like mobilization]. He’s not facing any threats in the gubernatorial election, but he’s going to have to answer to the presidential administration if the party does poorly,” a source close to the Kremlin’s political bloc told Meduza.

At the same time, both this source and the source close to the Yakutian authorities noted that the party’s campaigning in the republic was initially expected to go “fairly smoothly.” According to them, Nikolayev and Avksentieva “agreed from the get-go” that the “people’s mayor” wouldn’t run for governor, and that the Yakutia authorities would “help” the New People party win the second-highest number of Il Tumen seats in return.

“Everybody was satisfied. But that plan didn’t foresee Nikolayev leading the United Russia lists. He had to do that at the insistence of the party’s federal leadership and the presidential administration, although he initially resisted,” a source close to the Putin administration said. (Meduza reported earlier that Moscow Mayor Sergey Sobyanin, who has always run as an independent candidate, was also forced to represent United Russia and to “share his approval rating” with the struggling ruling party.)

A source close to the Kremlin emphasized that Nikolayev “wanted to campaign solely as the head [of the republic] — all in white and above the fray.” Now, though, he’s the main person responsible for United Russia’s electoral results in the region — and he’s indirectly come under criticism from Avksentieva, who continues to attack the current authorities.

Nikolayev, who previously served as the mayor of Yakutsk and the republic’s finance minister, has been leading Yakutia since 2018. In a classic Kremlin move, he was initially declared acting mayor of the republic before decisively winning the election with 70 percent of the vote (his closest opponent, the Communist Party candidate, won just 12 percent).

“[As mayor of Yakutsk,] he managed to appeal to city residents. He was young [Nikolayev is currently 51], he’s good at PR, and he was a decent financial manager,” a source close to the Putin administration told Meduza.

Under Nikolayev, the city adopted a strategic development plan, and shortly before he left the post for the governorship, he briefed city lawmakers about the successful completion of a program to relocate residents from dilapidated housing. Meanwhile, local journalists criticized his administration for spending large amounts of money to repair city roads.

When he became head of the Sakha Republic, Nikolayev hoped he would also maintain control over Yakutsk by getting City Council Speaker Alexander Savinov, a United Russia member, to succeed him. A source close to the Putin administration described Savinov to Meduza as “not the strongest candidate,” which would have made him ideal for allowing Nikolayev to “closely monitor the city.”

However, the Rodina party’s candidate for the mayoral race was Vladimir Fedorov, a fairly influential businessman who was well-known in Yakutsk thanks to his local holiday events. He had run for mayor before, in 2012, and won 25 percent of the vote, but he had chosen not to run in the 2017 election, supporting Nikolayev instead. “There were no explicit agreements between us, but somehow it was clear to me that Aysen Nikolayev would soon become the head of the republic and wouldn’t obstruct my attempt to become mayor,” he later said.

But Fedorov’s bid for the mayorship failed: the Rodina party withdrew his candidacy, saying he had “distanced himself from the party.” Fedorov ended up supporting Avksentieva: together, they met with local residents, criticized the federal government’s pension age increase, and promised to increase transparency in City Hall. The strategy worked, Avksentieva won, and Fedorov became her first deputy.

In 2019, however, he was dismissed. The official reason was that his bachelor’s degree did “not meet the qualification requirements” for the position. Fedorov himself hinted that his dismissal had been sought by Nikolayev’s team.

Meanwhile, Aysen Nikolayev held on to the idea of placing someone close to him in the mayorship. In 2021, his wish came true: Sardana Avksentieva resigned, citing health problems, and her deputy, Evgeny Grigoryev, a United Russia member and a close acquaintance of Aysen Nikolaev, took her place.

“[The Yakutia authorities] used the ‘carrot and stick’ method. On one hand, they hinted at possible criminal charges [against Avksentieva]; on the other, they promised her a seat in the State Duma,” said a source who worked with Nikolayev’s team at the time. The threats against Avksentieva were likely credible: in 2020, one of her deputies, Vasily Gogolev, was sentenced to four years in prison on corruption and abuse of power charges.

Sardana Avksentieva supported Grigoryev, but his first electoral campaign was laden with difficulties. Vladimir Fedorov, who retained influence in the city, was not a fan of the United Russia candidate.

After the regional electoral commission prevented him from running in the race himself, Fedorov began campaigning for journalist Vitaly Obedin, who was representing the party A Just Russia. In the final count, Grigoryev’s lead over his opponent was miniscule: he garnered 43 percent of the vote, while Obedin won 40 percent.

“Many residents [of Yakutsk] were upset with Sardana for leaving: ‘We supported her to spite of the United Russia candidate, and meanwhile she was warming the chair for another United Russia candidate.’ Avksentieva endorsed Grigoryev, but they didn’t listen to her; Grigoryev won thanks to administrative resources,” a source who previously worked in the Yakutia government told Meduza.

Soon after that, according to Meduza’s sources, Yevgeny Grigoryev became “one of the main problems” facing Aysen Nikolayev, primarily because of his controversial public statements. At one point, for example, the mayor called it “inhumane” to keep stray dogs in shelters and proposed killing them. Another time, he advocated for the deportation of homeless people to labor camps.

“Nikolayev’s [bet] turned out to be a bad one,” said a source close to the region’s government. According to him, as the next election draws nearer, Nikolayev may start publicly criticizing Grigoryev in order to “distance the mayor from United Russia.” A source close to the party’ leadership emphasized to Meduza that the decision to dismiss the mayor has effectively already been made: “It’s just a question of whether it should be done before or after the elections.”

In light of Nikolayev’s “bad bet” on Grigoryev, the Kremlin’s political bloc is concerned that Sardana Avksentieva’s recent activities (Meduza’s sources believe she plans to “remain a player in Yakutia politics and wants to shake the hands of the entire republic” during her campaign) will take too many votes away from United Russia — and that the Communist Party may use the situation to its advantage. The Communist Party does not currently have any notably popular politicians in Yakutia, but its candidates usually perform well there.

“The Communists in the region get votes from two groups: the purely protest-minded electorate, who vote ‘against everyone,’ and the people who believe the Soviet authorities did a lot of good for the republic,” a source close to the Putin administration told Meduza.

The “ideal scenario” for the Kremlin would be for United Russia to take first place (a goal that even spurred Nikolayev to reconcile with Fedorov, who’s running as a United Russia candidate) and New People to take second place. As Meduza has previously reported, the Putin administration hopes to see the far-right Liberal Democratic Party (LDPR) come in second in multiple regions so that the Communists will “come to their senses” and become easier to control before the 2024 presidential elections. In Yakutia, the New People party has taken on this role since, according to Meduza’s sources, the LDPR is “dead” in the region.

If the conflict between Avksentieva and Nikolayev becomes more serious, however, the situation could change. At the moment, the Kremlin’s political bloc considers Avksentieva to be “positive to neutral.” The Putin administration sees the “healthy man’s mayor” as a “fully establishment politician” — and hopes her current activities in Yakutia will stay confined to local parliamentary elections.

Sardana Avksentieva and Aysen Nikolayev did not respond to Meduza’s requests for comment.