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‘A model of authoritarian stability’ Researcher Temur Umarov on Bishkek’s decision to strengthen ties with Russia amid its invasion of Ukraine

Source: Meduza

Since the start of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, a growing number of countries have severed diplomatic ties with Moscow and actively condemned its actions. There are, however, a few states that have done the opposite, and moved to strengthen relations with Moscow. Temur Umarov, a researcher at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, explains the case of Kyrgyzstan in an interview with Meduza.

Bishkek sympathizes with Russia’s interests

Russia has long prioritized relations with the West and China in its foreign policy agenda. Meanwhile, when the Kremlin pays attention to Central Asia, it focuses on Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan, rather than Kyrgyzstan. This is partly due to the fact that politics in Kyrgyzstan has been unpredictable, says Temur Umarov. Putin is wary of “outsiders” trying to “shake up the system,” such as current Kyrgyzstani President Sadyr Japarov, who came to power amid violent protests — even if they have authoritarian ambitions. Instead, Putin prefers to mingle with longtime autocrats like President of Tajikistan Emomali Rahmon.

Out of all the Central Asian states, Kyrgyzstan has maintained the most pro-Russian stance since the start of Russia’s war against Ukraine. When Russia first invaded, Putin received calls from leaders across Central Asia, notes Umarov, including from the Kyrgyzstani president, who emphasized his “sympathy for Russia’s interest in the stability of security issues.” (This was only mentioned on the Kremlin’s website, not on that of the Kyrgyzstani president.) However, Japarov has also publicly expressed his support for Russia, writing on Facebook that Russia’s decision to recognize the self-proclaimed Luhansk and Donetsk people’s republics was necessary in order to “protect the civilian population.” In one interview with the news channel Russia-24 after the start of the war (conducted in Russian), Japarov said Russia could always rely on Kyrgyzstan, no matter what.

Kyrgyzstan has also been open to welcoming Russians fleeing abroad, giving them simplified paths to citizenship and allowing them to work as “digital nomads.” When asked how the Kremlin feels about this, Umarov explained that it’s not an issue, since Russia has yet to close its borders or prevent people from leaving. Overall, it’s better for Russia politically if those that don’t support the government leave the country, notes Umarov. Besides, Moscow’s happy that Bishkek ensures Russians living there don’t openly oppose the war. For example, law enforcement agencies have recently banned public demonstrations against the war, threatened to deport a Russian citizen for holding an anti-war sign at a protest, and shut down an organization called Red Roof, which provides Russian with a space to discuss topics such as the war. That’s all to say that Russians are welcome in Kyrgyzstan — “as long as they’re not outspoken about their political views,” say Umarov.

Japarov eagerly accepts Putin’s invitation to the 2023 Victory Parade

The Kyrgyzstani leader was one of the only heads of state to accept the Kremlin’s invitation to attend this year’s Victory Day celebration in Red Square. Umarov says that he believes everyone except Japarov declined the invitation. The event presented Japarov with an opportunity to strengthen ties with Putin. This was especially important in the context of Kyrgyzstan’s conflict with Tajikistan, as the latter’s president was the only guest at the parade in 2021.

While in Moscow, Japarov met with Putin and several other high-ranking officials. He also signed a strategic partnership agreement that addressed multiple issues of concern to Russia, such as certain countries not allowing Russia to establish a “multipolar” world. It also outlined initiatives for cooperation between law enforcement and intelligence agencies in Russia and Kyrgyzstan. But Kyrgyzstan has tried to avoid speaking too publicly in support of Russia, notes Umarov, for fear of secondary sanctions.

So why is Kyrgyzstan suddenly so intent on warming up to Russia? 

Now that Russia’s under a much more strict sanctions regime and finds itself increasingly isolated, remarks Umarov, Kyrgyzstan can serve as a “window into the sanctioned world” for Russian businesses. Since Japarov wants to turn Kyrgyzstan, long considered the most democratic country in the region, into an autocracy, he sees his interests as aligned with those of Putin, and Russia’s newfound isolation to be the perfect moment to improve ties. Japarov has, on more than one occasion, expressed his desire for the country’s experiment with democracy to end, and said that he can be the “strong arm” that Kyrgyzstan needs. To work toward this goal, Japarov has re-written the constitution, got himself elected, and has attained much more power than his predecessors.

What about Kyrgyzstan’s relationship with Ukraine?

“Relations between Kyrgyzstan and Ukraine are, let’s say, suspended,” says Umarov. “I don’t think there’s much time to think about issues other than the war anyway.” Ukraine watches developments in Bishkek fairly closely, however, and immediately called Japarov’s trip to Moscow for the Victory Parade “amoral.”

Kyrgyzstan’s economic relations with Ukraine have also been put on an indefinite hold. It is important to note, though, that there is a significant difference in attitudes between the government and the general population of Kyrgyzstan. While Japarov hasn’t called Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky since the start of war and has generally ignored the war, Umarov notes that Kyrgyzstani activists have regularly collected humanitarian aid for Ukraine.

What it all means for Kyrgyzstan’s future

As Japarov works to consolidate power and turn Kyrgyzstan into a full-fledged autocracy, Umarov says the Kyrgyzstani leader sees Russia as an apt “role model of authoritarian stability.” Russia’s legislation on NGOs and the media have been particularly appealing for Japarov. In fact, journalists believe that 90% of the wording for a law to control NGOs was taken directly from Russian legislation.

Kyrgyzstan has also followed Russia’s lead in cracking down on LGBT rights. Bishkek has adopted similar slogans and ideology based on the concept of “traditional values,” making life much harder for those part of the LGBT community or for those who engage in LGBT activism. Other policies that mirror those in Russia, notes Umarov, include planting drugs, closed court cases, inventing non-existent laws, and depriving people of citizenship. Like other authoritarian states, Kyrgyzstan watches Russia closely, explains Umarov, in order to adopt its best practices for preserving autocratic rule.